Prediction of in vitro fertilization outcome at different antral follicle count thresholds in a prospective cohort of 1,012 women

While AFC and age are predictive of live birth following IVF treatment, AFC demonstrates a stronger positive correlation. This study illustrates post-test probabilities of live birth at individual AFC thresholds.

Like Comment


Kannamannadiar Jayaprakasan, Ph.D., YeeYin Chan, M.B.B.S., Rumana Islam, M.B.B.S., Zeina Haoula, M.R.C.O.G., James Hopkisson, M.D., Arri Coomarasamy, M.D., Nick Raine-Fenning, Ph.D.

Vol 98, Issue 3, Pages 657-663



To estimate the probability of live birth, adverse treatment outcome, and extremes of ovarian response at different antral follicle count (AFC) cutoff levels in a large prospective cohort of women undergoing IVF treatment.


Prospective study.


University-based assisted conception unit.


A total of 1,012 consecutive subjects of all ages undergoing their first cycle of assisted reproductive techniques.


Transvaginal three-dimensional ultrasound assessment and venipuncture in the early follicular phase of the menstrual cycle.

Main Outcome Measure(s):

Live birth rate, poor ovarian response, and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS).


Analysis was performed in 1,012 subjects. Both age (r = 0.88) and AFC (r = 0.92) thresholds show significant linear relationship with the probability of live birth, but AFC demonstrates a stronger correlation. At AFC quartiles of 3–10, 11–15, 16–22, and ≥23, the mean live birth rates were 23%, 34%, 39%, and 44%, respectively. No live birth was observed in women with AFC


Although age and AFC are significantly correlated with live birth, AFC demonstrates a stronger correlation. Antral follicle count thresholds are useful to predict live birth rates and risks of poor ovarian response and OHSS during IVF treatment.

Read the full text at:

Fertility and Sterility

Editorial Office, American Society for Reproductive Medicine

Fertility and Sterility® is an international journal for obstetricians, gynecologists, reproductive endocrinologists, urologists, basic scientists and others who treat and investigate problems of infertility and human reproductive disorders.